Well, I don’t entirely believe that, but here’s why I say it.
I would venture to say that the vast majority of people who use computers and software are not like myself and the [few] readers of this blog. They don’t know what Linux, open source software, command-line interface, etc. are, and they don’t care. All they care about is if their software looks pretty and is easy to use.
That is where the problem with open source software lies; a lot of open source software looks and acts like open source software. It doesn’t have a pretty GUI and only geeks think it’s easy to use. Granted, there are applications that are making huge strides in the right direction (Firefox, Thunderbird), but even awesome apps like OpenOffice.org need help. If you’re Joe Schmoe, average user, you’re going to look at Office 2003 or 12 against OpenOffice.org and think “Microsoft Office looks way nicer than the other one, it’s probably a better program.”
Don’t get me wrong, I love my open source software and would never leave home without it, but it has a ways to go before it can be mainstream. I have a hard time thinking that this will be the year for open source.